The Institute of Behavioural Futures develops applied research on how human behaviour, decision environments, and imagined futures shape real-world outcomes. Our research connects futures studies, behavioural insights, and strategic practice, with a focus on making long-term thinking more usable, realistic, and actionable.

Rather than treating the future only as a matter of trends or scenarios, we study how futures are interpreted, resisted, ignored, and translated into everyday decisions.

Research themes

1. Behavioural foresight - How do people perceive, avoid, resist, or act on futures?

Behavioural foresight explores the human side of futures thinking. It looks at how assumptions, emotions, cognitive biases, social norms, and institutional contexts influence what people consider possible, probable, or preferable.

This theme asks questions such as:

• What futures do people find credible?
• Which futures are dismissed too quickly?
• What makes long-term change feel relevant today?
• How do fear, uncertainty, hope, or fatigue shape future-oriented action?

2. Strategy-behaviour alignment - Why strategies drift when the behavioural conditions do not support action?

Many strategies fail quietly. Not because the vision is wrong, but because the everyday conditions needed for action are missing. This research theme focuses on the gap between strategic intention and actual behaviour.

We examine how agency, defaults, friction, capacity, attention, and meaning influence whether people and organisations can act on strategic goals.

This theme supports practical work on:

• strategy implementation
• organisational change
• policy design
• leadership decisions
• behaviourally realistic action plans

3. Quiet futures and slow change - Hidden, cumulative shifts are shaping society before they become obvious.

Quiet futures research focuses on slow, under-the-radar changes in behaviour, culture, infrastructure, expectations, and everyday life. These shifts may not appear dramatic at first, but over time they influence how people live, work, learn, consume, care, move, and make decisions. This theme builds on the Quiet Futures Report 2025 and explores how weak signals, everyday adaptations, and behavioural mechanisms can reveal deeper societal change.

4. Decision-making under uncertainty - How do people and organisations make choices when the future is unclear?

This theme focuses on biases, heuristics, agency, attention, and institutional defaults in decision-making. It explores why people rely on shortcuts, why certain futures become easier to imagine than others, and how decision environments can either narrow or expand the space for action. Research under this theme connects behavioural economics, cognitive psychology, futures literacy, and strategic foresight.

Current research outputs

Quiet Futures Report 2025

The Quiet Futures Report 2025 is the institute’s flagship publication. It explores slow, cumulative, and often unnoticed changes shaping everyday life and future societies, with a Nordic-Baltic lens.

The report connects futures thinking with behavioural mechanisms, showing how hidden shifts can influence decisions, institutions, and strategic choices.

Quiet Future Dispatch

The Quiet Future Dispatch is an ongoing publication stream exploring behavioural insight, foresight methods, and reflective tools for decision-making. Each issue connects a behavioural phenomenon with futures thinking and offers practical prompts for reflection and action.

Thesis and game-based research

Current thesis work explores the connection points between strategic foresight, behavioural insights, and decision-making under uncertainty. This includes the development of a game-based intervention designed to help professionals recognise cognitive biases, reflect on assumptions, and strengthen future-oriented decision-making.

Future working papers

The institute is developing a working paper series on behavioural futures, strategy-behaviour alignment, quiet societal change, and decision-making under uncertainty. These papers will offer more focused analysis of emerging concepts, methods, and applied cases.

Research-based essays

Selected essays on the Insights page develop research-informed perspectives on behavioural futures, foresight, bias, agency, defaults, friction, capacity, attention, and meaning. These essays act as bridges between academic thinking, practical strategy, and public-facing reflection.